Trades vs. Degree: The Net Worth Simulator
The conventional wisdom says the degree earns more. The math says: it depends — on your field, your debt load, your salary trajectory, and how you count the years you spent in school instead of earning. An HVAC technician who finishes a two-year program at 22 with zero debt is frequently ahead of a four-year graduate at the same age on net worth, even if the graduate's salary eventually surpasses them. This simulator runs the actual numbers across both paths — at age 30, 40, and 50 — so the comparison is honest rather than inherited.
Two paths, one timeline.
What percent of take-home pay do you save and invest?
Annual return on invested savings (index fund baseline: ~7%)
Total tuition, fees, and program costs — not living expenses
Path A default reflects median trades entry. Path B default reflects median bachelor's degree holder aged 22–27 (BLS 2025).
Average annual raises, promotions, and career progression
Apprentices earn while learning. Students typically earn part-time or nothing.
Total tuition, fees, and program costs — not living expenses
Path A default reflects median trades entry. Path B default reflects median bachelor's degree holder aged 22–27 (BLS 2025).
Average annual raises, promotions, and career progression
Apprentices earn while learning. Students typically earn part-time or nothing.
Want the diagnosis underneath the math?
The credential collapse and work reboot research grounds this calculator.